COVID-19 will accelerate the adoption of Cologuard by one to two years toward ‘40% market share’ goal


COVID-19 will accelerate the adoption of Cologuard by one to two years toward ‘40% market share’ goal

COVID-19 will accelerate the adoption of Cologuard by one to two years towards ‘40% market share’ goal.
Let’s start with some numbers: 
Total revenue was $268.9 million (compare that to $199.9 million in Q2 2019 and $347.8 million in Q1 2020) 
Screening revenue was $131.3 million, a decrease of 34% (They had an increase of 35% in Q1, 2020) 
Precision Oncology revenue was $103.0 million (compare that to $128.4 million in Q1, 2020) 
COVID-19 testing revenue was $34.6 million 
These takeaways are based on the Q2 2020 Earnings Call. Kevin Conroy, Chairman and CEO, Exact Sciences and Jeff Elliott, Chief Financial Officer, Exact Sciences made these remarks. 

 


 Takeaways: 
1. The company feels that the COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the need for more convenient and accurate cancer testing options. 
2. Per Exact Sciences, experts have estimated that over the next decade there will be an additional 10,000 deaths from colorectal and breast cancer because of the screenings that have been canceled or delayed just to the end of June. 
3. The company believes that the COVID-19 crisis will accelerate the adoption of Cologuard by one to two years towardstheir40% market share goal. (40% market share of the total 106 million people colorectal cancer screening market)
4. Approximately 5,000 new healthcare providers have ordered Cologuard during Q2, and nearly 211,000 providers have ordered since launchThe company feels that number of first-time users of Cologuard is remarkable given the pandemic.
5. Exact Sciences expects the total Precision Oncology revenue to declinebased on mammography volume trends in recent months that have also declined
6. According to the company, the Cologuard ordering numbers are near pre-COVID levels and have recovered more quickly than screening colonoscopy which is down 30% to 40%. 
7. Exact Sciences recently acquired tissue-based Paradigm PCDx test. (A broad panel to help guide late-stage cancer patients to the appropriate therapy)  
8. The company is also working to enhance the tissue-based test and introduce a blood-based version of the Paradigm test.  
9. Exact Sciences plans to expand test offerings to their thousand-person commercial organization with sales teams and primary care, Gastroenterology, Oncology Urology, and women’s health in the U.S. and internationally.  
10. The company presented another study at ASCO confirming the superior performance of their liver test when compared to the current guideline-recommended protein blood test. 
11. The company is reinitiating the BLUE-C trials that had been temporarily paused due to COVID-19. 
12. The company reckons that there is higher compliance by people who see the television commercial, and initiate testing through cologuardtest.com. 
13. The company feels that providers who previously had ordered Cologuard occasionally are ordering at a much higher level now. 
14. When asked about Humana launching test kits and FIT tests – Kevin Conroy said, “FIT programs aren’t very effective, and that’s one of the reasons we developed Cologuard, a more accurate test that makes the patient good on their colon cancer screening for three years” (as opposed to a FIT test that has to be done every year).
15. Exact Sciences conducted a survey with 150 healthcare providers. According to the survey, 70% of the providers say that Cologuard will play a more important role in colorectal cancer screening in the future, and 75% of them expect Cologuard volumes to increase over the next year. The company believes this is because there is a shift from colonoscopy to Cologuard. 
16. Exact Sciences stated that this year there are over 370,000 new patients who are eligible for their three-year rescreen opportunity. And they are seeing an increased capture rate of those patients. 
17. The company has said that towards the end of this year, Cologuard or electronic ordering will be embedded in Epic as the next rollout. 
18. Action plans for the third quarter:
  • To bring their sales force back in the field.  
  • Restarting the studies and clinical trials. Like – BLUE-C and liver tests.  
  • The company expects to step up in R&D. 
19. The company feels that clinically there’s a strong reason to adopt Cologuard for the 45 to 49 age group. Because there is a 50% increase in the incidence and mortality rate in that age group. There are almost 20 million Americans who are in that target market. 
20. The company believes that with COVID testing, they have strengthened their relationships with health systems that will help both Cologuard and Oncotype DX. 
21. For Exact Sciences, the electronic ordering rate for COVID testing has been very high. (70% of electronic ordering for COVID testing). For Cologuard, about 35% orders are submitted electronically. 
_
References:
Exact Sciences (EXAS) Q2 2020 Earnings Call Transcript (The Motley Fool) 
Exact Sciences Announces Second Quarter 2020 Results (Exact Sciences)  
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